So the AFM- SA elections came and is now history, prior to this event a week ago some of us advanced our views on what the outcome of the elections may produce
For my part I shared my opinion from two angles the least of my focus was my speculation on the actual outcome, I guess the one lost written comment I received failed to appreciate the challenge I raise beyond who is elected.
I committed to eat humbled pie if my analysis were proven wrong and half-baked; hence, it is only correct to do the honourable thing.
Let us therefore now assess. I said Dr. Burger the incumbent would be re-elected as president. Yet it is perhaps important to pause and ask what constituencies delivered the results for Dr Burger. There is no question that Burger’s election was carried to larger extend by the combination of the ‘white’ and ‘Coloured’ votes. One is not arguing that some ‘African’ voters did not also prefer him though these constitute a small group. I am happy to report I was right on this one.
Deputy President, Dr. La Poorta was officially elected. Yet this election perhaps proves unprecedented in experience when the election process was abruptly stopped when Dr. Chikane withdrew midstream. Chikane’s withdrawal almost presented a constitutional challenge when seeing to it that the elections continued the next day with one person on the ballot.
I was wrong for speculating that Chikane will win La Poorta yet it is important to note that Chikane at the time of his withdrawal was in the lead.
I dare speculate and ask why Chikane really withdrew; I may not have facts at hand but will advance a view in asking a pertinent question.
Is it possible that prior to this elective conference a possible deal was on the table proffered by Dr. la Poorta, in which he approached Chikane to offer the ‘coloured vote’ for Chikane as president if Chikane could deliver the African vote for a La Poorta Deputy presidency? Could it be that a similar deal was cut with Burger? Could it be that Chikane proved honourable to withdraw because he had the presence of mind to honour what he agreed with La Poorta at a potential NLF gathering?
I would imagine Pastor Herbert will now understand that the envisaged contest between Chikane and La Poorta squaring off for the deputy presidency as predicted in my poor analysis, which he found off the wall perhaps with egg on his face.
For had Chikane not withdrawn I dare assert La Poorta would not have been deputy president. We may never know the truth of Chikane’s withdrawal from the deputy president race, yet we will always wonder if 1996 did not repeat it again in 2012.
Treasurer position, Pastor Petersen was elected by a slight margin, as anticipated. The fact that the African candidate Pastor Tamage, who also ran in the previous election was pipped by such narrow margin 53-47% suggests at another level the fact I predicted that the African constituency will come to the 2012 elective conference with their own candidates for all major positions of president, deputy president, treasurer and General secretary, tells us the levels of mistrust in the previous Composite division.
General Secretary Position, Pastor Mahlobo won by the biggest margin over 80%. I was wrong to have argued that he would not make it. Yet my analysis was premised on the outcome of the deputy presidency, which clearly ended abruptly with Chikane’s withdrawal from the deputy presidency race. The race could have gone different if Chikane did not withdraw.
So I eat pie for where I was wrong but it’s not humbled pie, yet it’s not a cold cornish pie but a very hot pie because my hypothesis on a deal offered to Chikane which led to his withdrawal remains a variable to factor in the 3 positions of deputy president, treasurer and general secretary.
In the end, the elections were concluded and I am sure those aware left thinking this one communicates a multi-faceted.
I shall conclude with the saying ‘even among thieves there is honour’ yet less among clergy. In the end what remains a now indisputable fact is that the unity of the AFM- SA remain a very fragile one that only time and hour will show. Fragile for many reasons since the very previous composite division is now as divided and split along clear racial lines.
I wrote this piece because I have promised to eat humble pie if my so called called ‘cold coffee analysis’ according to Pastor Trevor Herbert who failed to read and was quick to respond was proven wrong.