The Final Countdown for Malema has begun, yet he has recourse!
This week it is anticipated the two month long disciplinary hearing conducted in a multiplicity of venues following the first eventful and violent day of such hearing marked by sympathizers running wild in the Johannesburg city centre, will come to its conclusion.
Speculation runs wild that this is the end for Julius Malema who proved less prudent to understand that what he touched on as economic redress besides having many enemies in both national and organizational context will ultimately be used to reflect back on him as what many commentators call a bigot.
We said before and we say it again, there are those who want to deliberately misplace and substitute the issue of Economic redress for a myopic Malema focus. These fill the newspapers ad-nauseum with him leading the march and leaving for a R10million rand wedding invitation, as prove of him using the masses whilst he lives high on the hog. From the start the campaign of economic redress was sought to be a backburner for those who refuse to let the real issue stands regardless to the personality, shortcomings and clay feet of a Malema.
Yet Malema I said earlier is to blame for he made many unnecessary ill-timed mistakes. It was not necessary for him to pronounce on ANC leadership the same which initially landed him last year before a disciplinary hearing that found him guilty.
He proved less responsible for not respecting leadership nor the ruling that found him guilty at that time. He chose to play his hand mesmerized by a make believe support immanent in individualism, when he hurled abuse at the national leadership in claiming he is the only leader of the ANC who can be welcomed in the volatile townships.
He acted like a spoilt brat with the attention that a media afforded him when these learnt a Juju sells newspapers, he walked right into that trap of “stardom” and more and more proved defiant with his rants.
Malema, I hold dug his own political grave when he proved less respectful of the history of the ANC in which democratically elected leadership is respected and issues raised in the available and relevant forums and structures.
Malema in my books needed not ever to pronounce on a Botswana sovereign state question he proved off- side on a plethora of issues that he ignited by not discerning the result of his actions.
In my books he proved rude and dissenting to a democratically elected Zuma leadership fueling dissent and causing unnecessary organizational polarisation in playing off potential ambitious candidates against such Zuma leadership in the uprun to a 2012 elective conference.
Having cited this the ill-advised actions of a Julius Malema the question everyone wants to know is what will be the outcome and findings of the disciplinary hearing of Malema. Whilst none of us can say for certain what will happen yet we all can speculate on such imminent findings.
The disciplinary hearing in a sense has their work scripted. One thing that is certain is that thy cannot return with a not guilty verdict for such is not any option. If in a hypothetical sense such is the case, it would lend credence to the view the disciplinary hearing was an orchestrated politically inspired move. It furthermore would see a Malema ten times stronger and free from any threat open to be used by whomever to say whatever for whatever agenda. It will create a precedent in which future disciplinary hearings may be disrespected and considered as pure political gerrymandering.
The disciplinary hearing in all probability will find Malema and the ANCYL executive guilty for it cannot but find them off- side. Perhaps the guilty finding is less important when the real issue is sentencing.
In regards the other five, I would venture to argue they would be found guilty and receive a suspended sentence that would equate a final warning.
However for a Malema it is more complicated, he is already on a suspended sentence from the last hearing, he violated the very sentence which compromises him and makes him susceptible for the publicized sanction of suspension informed by the previous ruling. Such may be a 2 year suspension which would effectively remove him from the hallowed spot of ANCYL control. Which in my books a Malema simply cannot do without if he has any hope of furthering his political career in ANC fold.
The worst scenario is a full expulsion from the ANC. I’m off the opinion that whilst a possibility is not really possible, it would be a challenge to justify such with the actual current charges. These charges in corroborating content in my books do not warrant a full blown expulsion. If the ruling opts for such expulsion it would be argued it was harsh.
We must also not forget that Malema will have recourse to appeal such findings in a potentially protracted case that could most probably be finalized only in the next 4-6months. This would empower a Malema to continue holding the powers of ANCYL leadership from which campaigning and political manouvring is very possible.
Lastly, the current environment around Malema in which the Hawks and other legal structures are circling the air, the cases piling around him with perhaps former friends in business embrace singing like canaries for fear of being made the object of arrest attests to someone wallowing in his own blood.
I shall venture to say, the dice has been cast and it does not look like he will share a platform with the President at the Centenary celebrations for this is one crack no spin doctor can fix, for the context is a highly polarised one. Not to forget is to note that the ANCYL elected leadership was never endorsed by the ANC sitting leadership (in being afforded a formal meeting), a critical point to keep in mind, for it proves consistency on the part of the ANC leadership on their disapproval for the gaffes, statements, rhetoric and dissent the ANCYL leadership engaged in.
The truth is those who see in Malema a future for themselves to be elected as the next president, are not that loyal to Malema for he represents a mere means to an end, hence if he is off-loaded they will continue less perturbed to make their advances to the Union Buildings via the much anticipated 2012 elective conference as hopefuls painted in all corners.
I guess the road to Mangaung is a bumpy, topsy turvy and a meandering road where the path often will be uncertain but ultimately found when in my books the comeback kid South African politics, Jacob Zuma prove his mettle again by claiming a victory everyone thought he could not attain.
Until then your guess is as good as mine!
Bishop Clyde N. Ramalaine
Independent observer author of “Through the Prism of my Soul” an Anthology of contemporary political commentary and analysis